Financial Market Watch…for the week ended June 16, 2017

Local economy news

The Federal Government finally signed the N7.44tn 2017 Appropriation Bill into law. The budget, which projects revenue of N5.08tn, allocates N2.178tn for total capital expenditure and N2.987tn for non-debt recurrent expenditure, while N1.841tn was allocated for debt service, which constitutes 36.3 per cent of revenue projections. The resulting N2.36tn fiscal deficit is expected to be financed with debt. Revenue projection is based on a benchmark crude oil price of $44.5 per barrel and oil production estimate of 2.2 million barrels per day.

According to OPEC’s June Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria’s crude oil production increased month-on-month by 11.55 per cent to 1.68 million barrels per day in May. Given the boost in crude oil output coupled with the gradual resumption of crude oil exports from the 400,000 barrels per day capacity Forcados terminal towards the end May, since the facility was shut down in November 2016, the Federal Government’s crude oil output and revenue projections appeared feasible amid relative calm in the oil-rich Niger Delta.

In another development, the latest inflation report by the National Bureau of Statistics showed Nigeria’s consumer prices increased year-on-year by 16.25 per cent in May (easing from a 17.24 per cent in April). The sustained decline in annual headline inflation followed slower year-on-year increases in core inflation and food inflation to 13 per cent in May (from 14.8 per cent in April) and 19.27 per cent in May (from 19.30 per cent in April), respectively.

This was partly due to monthly decrease in foreign exchange rates. The parallel market exchange rate declined month-on-month by 1.63 per cent to an average of N380.09/$ in May. The index for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose slower by 12.93 per cent in May (from 18.85 per cent in April); transport inflation moderated to 13.30 per cent (from 14.90 per cent); imported food inflation slowed to 14.96 per cent in May (from 17.11 per cent in April); while clothing and footwear inflation slowed to 16.33 per cent in May (from 17.12 per cent in April).

Equity market: Listed securities on NSE

The rally in the equity segment of the Nigerian stock market continued for the second consecutive week as the twin market indicators closed in the positive territory

Consequently, the NSE ASI and market capitalisation appreciated marginally by 1.60 per cent (160 basis points) week-on-week to close at  33,810.56 points and N11.691tn, respectively. With this, the NSE ASI has now delivered a positive year-to-date return of 25.81 per cent.

Meanwhile, total deals, transacted volumes and naira votes increased week-on-week by 14.19 per cent, 2.00 per cent and 29.35 per cent to 32,990 deals, 2.74 billion shares and N32.04bn, respectively.

This week, we expect the key market indicators to close in the positive territory as investors continue to take position ahead of the mid-year earnings releases era of quoted companies.

NASD unlisted securities

The NASD OTC market extended the gains garnered in the previous trading session as the key performance indicators closed in the positive territory. Consequently, the Unlisted Securities Index and market capitalisation appreciated significantly by 0.88 per cent to close the week at 643.29 points and N435.34bn, respectively.

Money market

The OBB and Overnight rates eased marginally in the outgoing week, owing to elevated liquidity at the interbank market from OMO maturities worth approximately N205bn.

This week, the Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to auction treasury bills worth N133.246bn, which will offset maturing treasury bills worth N104.679bn. Consequently, we expect rates to hike marginally on drained system liquidity.

Treasury bills market

The treasury bills market traded bullish throughout the last week as anticipated OMO maturities of N205bn spurred a rally across the curve. The major movers were the July papers, which shed over 300bps week-on-week. The market reached a climax as a further sale of special OMO at 16 per cent by the CBN crashed yields to 13.50 per cent; however, stability returned to the market when the CBN continued its usual OMO sales at 18 per cent and 18.60 per cent. On the average, yields on the short, mid and long dated securities closed at 15 per cent, 18.30 per cent and 18.25 per cent from the previous week’s levels of 18.50 per cent, 18.90 per cent and 18.60 per cent.

  • Dr. Bernard Ilori

Email – [email protected]

Tel: 09030004477 (SMS/WhatsApp only)

Copyright PUNCH.               
All rights reserved. This material, and other digital content on this website, may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior express written permission from PUNCH.

Contact: [email protected]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Facebook Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com